Horacio Pozzo

However, the national authorities have given to understand that they will use those funds to loans to the productive sector to one year at a rate that ronde only 11%. Is that the way to protect the savings of the welfare system? Beyond criticism and any accolades received the plan, the question that matters to respond, given the goal of it is: will the new anti-crisis plan be effective? Since its announcement, many analysts have criticized the failure of the plan in terms of its magnitude, beyond of the distribution of the same. The reality indicates that the country is limited as to implement greater magnitude in size, so the key will pass by the effectiveness of the shot they are playing. And here is where again returns the item that mentioned them about the systematic denial of the Government of its responsibility for the situation of the argentina’s economy. This denial does nothing more than produce uncertainty since the Government, not to recognize errors in its management is giving to understand that probably again to commit the same mistakes or more serious by maintain your posture.

With this attitude, to maintain uncertainty in the economic context, it makes that families do not wish to consume and prefer to save to be prepared against a possible worsening of the situation. It is very difficult to think that average family argentina think at the moment in going into debt to acquire a 0 km, when the economy has slowed, unemployment rises, and the economic situation shows signs of bewilderment. Also it is difficult to think that a company (e.g. SMEs), decides to invest by lower that rate, when the perspectives on the evolution of their activity are negative (and if they were positive, the uncertainty of the expected profitability product of the fragility of the rules of the game, they make the return required to decide to invest too high). The perception There is that Government’s priority should be to strengthen the macroeconomic scenario, seeking to generate stability and transparency for thereby, giving security to the private sector, the economic stimulus plan can gain in efficiency.

In parallel, and in what seems to be an additional measure, while not declared, while the plan begins to take shape in what refers to the small print, the exchange rate of the dollar in Argentina continues to rise and now stands at $3.46. It is not something Ebay would like to discuss. The depreciation of the Argentine peso was a measure widely claimed by the Argentine industrial sector, before the deterioration observed by the real exchange rate in recent times product of the inflationary acceleration that had come to exceed 30% YOY (though in recent months were heavily desacelerara by the fall in external inflationary pressures and strong local demand retraction). In this context, the depreciation of the Argentine peso, (at least partly), protects the local tradable sector from foreign competition (increased by the crisis), although probably not to generate a significant impact in exports given depressed external demand. The weakness both internal as external demand, gives peace of mind that the depreciation observed in the exchange rate is not transferred to prices. The Argentine Government is still testing different formulas to avoid the economic decline, which has started already several months ago and not as a result of the international crisis. How long will take to recognize their mistakes and to deal with the real problems of the Argentine economy?